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OffTopic > My sales theory for Nintendo and the DS!

#32193 - qwertycho - Sun Dec 19, 2004 7:20 am

As things have been going the PSP is pretty high demand in Japan. Sataru Iwata keeps saying that the DS is not competing with the PSP, because it's pretty much a whole different genre. But I'm sure he knows as much as I do that they are competing with them and the PSP may cause them some problems.

So here is my theory:
1. Nintendo DS right now is very popular in the U.S. (high demand)
2. Sony has their ways, so when the PSP comes out in the U.S., it will be huge demand, and many people will want one. Thus attracting publicity. (high demand for PSP, but lowering demand for the DS)

so what will nintendo do?

3. Nintendo will release Demasked prior to PSP launch, this will boost publicity for the DS and will give a huge reason why to purchase a DS over the PSP.

Now if you think this to not be true, please post your opinion without flaming mine, becuase I know that there is probably something that contredicts my theory, so please share it.

#32194 - mymateo - Sun Dec 19, 2004 7:37 am

I would recommend posting topics like this in the "Off Topic" section, as there are a few people getting upset at the number of non-development posts being made in this section.

#32211 - Dib - Sun Dec 19, 2004 12:25 pm

Quote:
Now if you think this to not be true, please post your opinion without flaming mine, becuase I know that there is probably something that contredicts my theory, so please share it.

Your theory is completely basless and contains not a single shred of empirical fact garnered from actual observation in support of it. Which puts it on par with just about every other random idiots' mutterings about DS vs. PSP. It's destitute of anything original or remotely interesting, and furthermore it was completely pointless to post it in a forum titled "DS development".

#32222 - Abscissa - Sun Dec 19, 2004 4:48 pm

Quote:
please post your opinion without flaming mine

Dib wrote:
Your theory is completely basless and contains not a single shred of empirical fact garnered from actual observation in support of it.

Dib, Note: "Please...without flaming"

Dib wrote:
Which puts it on par with just about every other random idiots' mutterings

That is not only blatantly rude, but it is completely uncalled for. This message board has gotten along fine for a long time with very few new members coming in flaming everyone. If you're going to be here you'll need to learn to get along without responding to innocent posts in such a manner. If not, I suggest a different forum that's more accustomed to that manner of conduct.


Last edited by Abscissa on Sun Dec 19, 2004 5:18 pm; edited 1 time in total

#32225 - Abscissa - Sun Dec 19, 2004 5:17 pm

Additionally...

Dib wrote:
and furthermore it was completely pointless to post it in a forum titled "DS development".


There is only one forum section that specifically mentions "DS". Yes, posts like this one may perhaps be better suited for the Offtopic section, but since the post does relate directly to the DS it is *not* entirely obvious which section is most appropriate. The post wasn't directly related to "development", true, but since it was DS-related and there is a section that's for DS, there will obviously be some level of *reasonable* confusion as to which location to post to. Keep in mind, the forum regulars themselves have debated over this exact issue, and so you cannot expect someone with 6 posts to know any better.

I realize this is probably another debatable point, but I propose to the moderators that perhaps we need separate "DS Development" and "DS Non-Development/Misc." sections to finally clear up this sort of confusion. To be honest, I don't think that either "DS Development" *OR* "Offtopic" are completely approptiate locations for many such posts, because DS discussions can hardly be considered "Offtopic" to a message board that already talks about DS Dev (And I think that is what's causing all of the confusion.) I realize that we've already had discussions over whether we should go as far as to spin-off the DS stuff into an entirely different message board, but regardless of whenever the mods determine to be the best time for that (It's probably still a little early now), I think that in the meantime we could really use at the very least separate clear-cut "DS Dev" and "DS Misc." sections for the above reasons.

#32269 - NoMis - Mon Dec 20, 2004 9:58 am

I don't think the PSP started that well. They only selled 166.017 units in the first week based on famitsu. Thats only around 85%. On top of that, many chinese shops buy PSP's to sell them on high prices and try to create a simulated shortness.

The DS selled 348.700 units in the timeframe from 02.12.04 to 05.12.04 based on Media Create data.

I originally tought the PSP would go to a much higher price since they have very high production cost. But since the price is ok I wonder why the PSP is going that bad.

NoMis

#32271 - mymateo - Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:40 am

Possible theories are that

1) Seen as another media device, ie Seen more like an iPod than a Gameboy

2) People who don't keep up with these things and find out about them ahead of time didn't know about PSP when they forked their cash over for DS ... now they're broke

3) Some people may not trust Sony's first attempt at a handheld

4) Did I mention Battery life? 'Cause if not, hundreds of other people have. And from what I read (I think it might have even been on this forum), it only gets about 90 min of life playing Ridge Racer. 90 minutes?? Compare that to 360 to 600 minutes...

5) Development prospects are dismal in comparison. People who buy a device solely due to getting excited about the dev aspect of things (guilty as charged... though I am enjoying the games...) make up a very small percent, but those few people are more likey interested in the DS 'cause you can do way more than on a PSP... WAY more.

Sure, the PSP has many good aspects which make it more of a home console gone portable, but if the battery life is as bad as rumored, then it really turns into just another home console that you can take with you more easily... and play on the way to Grandma's house. But if Grandma lives 2 towns over, and she's amish, better have spare batteries 'cause you ain't playing it on the way back!

That's my $0.02

#32272 - keldon - Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:59 am

mymateo wrote:
That's my $0.02

If I collect enough of these, I can buy my own DS =D

#32274 - NoMis - Mon Dec 20, 2004 11:20 am

mymateo wrote:

4) Did I mention Battery life? 'Cause if not, hundreds of other people have. And from what I read (I think it might have even been on this forum), it only gets about 90 min of life playing Ridge Racer. 90 minutes?? Compare that to 360 to 600 minutes...


Oh yeah, I forgot about the battary lifetime issue. This is one of the bigest problems about the PSP I think.
I would be interessted in a PSP as well if they don't have these kind of problems. I like the huge screen on the PSP and the possibilities you have with the disc format (cutscenes, movies, ...) but overall this device is not finished in my opinion.

As long as they don't solve the battary problem I'm not interested in a PSP.

But at all I thought PSP would go a bit better since sony already made themself a name in home entertainment and they also have some 1st party titles that are popular along the playstation community.

NoMis

#32284 - Abscissa - Mon Dec 20, 2004 5:43 pm

There were also some quality issues with the PSP (PS2 deja vu, anyone?). For instance, analog-nubs falling off, and UMD discs popping out. See here: http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=4010 Additionally, one of the leaders of the PSP project actually said "You wouldn't want to drop this thing". Compare that with Nintendo's consistent durability.

Also, the "too-big-to-fit-in-a-pocket" size might be a big inconvinience for the on-the-go public-transit-loving Japanese (I don't mean that as an insult).

Oh, and then the Japanese might have lost a little bit of faith in Sony from the dismal all-in-one 'PSX'. They could be seeing the PSP as just another PSX, especially since Sony talks so much about how the PSP does so much more than just games.

#32290 - dagamer34 - Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:46 pm

One thing that makes me think that the PSP isn't really all that portable is the fact that you can't just throw your PSP and games into your pocket with other things (pencils, oh God! the screen!!! the exposed part of the disc!) and stuff like that. You would need to have a carrying case for your PSP to hold the system and games, and that greatly increases its size.

Now, I'm not saying the DS is perfect either. I don't like how the connectors are exposed on a DS cart when you compare it with Nintendo's earlier handheld products, but cases make it easier to carry. Still an add-on though that you have to look for in a store.
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#32291 - Lupin - Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:50 pm

I just hope that the PSP won't have so many restrictions on media formats on memory sticks (at first they didn't want to allow playing mp3 from memory stick but later in development they changed their mind realizing that this would be an essential feature) and that the content on the UMD discs will be available everywhere for low prices.

The quality issues sure will be fixed when the european release of the PSP starts (at least i hope so), i guess this is because sony wanted to release the PSP before christmas. The NDS also doesn't really fit in your pocket, it may be a bit smaller but that's the trade off for the large PSP screen.
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#32292 - dagamer34 - Mon Dec 20, 2004 7:52 pm

Lupin wrote:
I just hope that the PSP won't have so many restrictions on media formats on memory sticks (at first they didn't want to allow playing mp3 from memory stick but later in development they changed their mind realizing that this would be an essential feature) and that the content on the UMD discs will be available everywhere for low prices.

The quality issues sure will be fixed when the european release of the PSP starts (at least i hope so), i guess this is because sony wanted to release the PSP before christmas. The NDS also doesn't really fit in your pocket, it may be a bit smaller but that's the trade off for the large PSP screen.


From what I know, Christmas isn't really that big in Japan like it is in the US. But of course, the best time to release a new product in the US is right before Thanksgiving, so there is ample time for more units to arrive into stores.
_________________
Little kids and Playstation 2's don't mix. :(

#32295 - keldon - Mon Dec 20, 2004 10:04 pm

this was my sales theory:
Code:

    /\ <- psp launch
   /  \
  /    \/\ <- Sabinov DS launch (lol)
 /        \
/          \


For all those who mock me, I say prove me wrong.

On a serious note I think the games hype will tell you the sales predictions. If they have only a few hyped games then they won't do too well at all. It's all about word of mouth.

#32339 - Abscissa - Tue Dec 21, 2004 5:02 am

Lupin wrote:
The NDS also doesn't really fit in your pocket, it may be a bit smaller but that's the trade off for the large PSP screen.


Oh, I bet the NDS could fit in *my* pockets. Heck, I could probably fit a PSOne in there. The benefits of being big...heheh ;)

Anyone know offhand how the size of the PSP compares to the Game Gear? I suppose I could look up dimentions, but I'm lazy :)